Nottingham Forest · Premier League 2026/27
Forest, at a glance.
The result, the next one, the table and the numbers that explain how the season is going.
Historical comparisons · 2026/27
Historical finishes from these points
6 pts / 9 games · 0.67 PPM
Median and percentages: past teams with exactly the same points and games played. Best/worst: the points thresholds shown below.
23 matching past teams · 31 seasons. Historical outcomes, not a forecast.
See the teams behind the numbers →This season’s probabilities · Modelled forecast · Experimental
Forest’s chances this season
Chance of each league finish in our xG-based model, across 20,000 simulated seasons.
Top half and bottom half cover all finishes. Top four and top seven are within the top half; relegation is within the bottom half. These chances overlap. Top seven does not guarantee European qualification.
Explore exact finishing positions
Forecast table rank: 16th. This is Forest’s place when clubs are ordered by their average finish. It is different from Forest’s own average of 14.2.
16th: 9.3%; 1,853 of 20,000 simulated seasons
The tallest bar is the most common single finish—not a guarantee. Several positions have very similar probabilities (15th–18th); the tallest can move between runs. The league forecast table orders all clubs by average finish, which can differ from their most common position.
Are 20,000 simulations enough?
At this sample size, the worst-case approximate 95% simulation noise is ±0.7 percentage points for a probability near 50%. This measures sampling noise only, not uncertainty in team strengths or the model. More runs smooth the bars; better data and model testing improve the forecast. Very rare outcomes are less stable; a zero count does not prove an outcome is impossible.
Forest’s projected position by gameweek
Open the full chart →Loading the selected games and forecasts…
Looking back · Shot-based replay
What if the chances fell differently?
All 9 completed league games
Game numbers follow the order Forest played, not official gameweeks.Forest’s league games 1–9 (9 games), replayed 20,000 times from the chances both teams had. Red marks the actual points won. 22 Aug 2026 – 31 Oct 2026.
6 points: 0.3% · 52 of 20,000 replays · Forest’s actual total
Exactly 6 points: 0.3%. This is a replay of chances already taken, not a pre-match forecast.
Explore another team, period or opponent →
How the replay works
Each match uses its shot-by-shot xG win, draw and loss probabilities. We repeat the completed schedule 20,000 times, awarding 3, 1 or 0 points. The headline percentages are calculated exactly; the bars show the simulations. Longer charts zoom to at least 99.8% of returns; all totals remain in the selector, and probabilities are not rescaled. Penalties are included, own-goal pseudo-shots are excluded. Shots and matches are treated as independent; tactics and later chances do not change when a simulated goal changes the score. This measures the points return, not the probability of the exact scores or their order.
Looking ahead · Modelled forecast
What could the next games bring?
Forest’s next 4 league games, simulated 20,000 times from the match model. Points earned in this run—not the final-season total. 7 Nov 2026 – 2 Dec 2026.
5 points: 10.7% · from the next 4 games
6 points already banked + 4.9 expected = 10.9 expected season points after this run.
How the forecast works
The same opponent-adjusted xG model used on Forecast supplies each match’s win, draw and loss probabilities. We simulate 3, 1 or 0 points per match with fixed current team strengths and independent results. No injury adjustment. Experimental model, not a guarantee; the middle 80% describes this model’s simulated returns, not all uncertainty about team strength.
Results, not a forecast
Forest’s form, in perspective.
Points per match · Forest PL average 1.19 = dashed line
Last three seasons = this season + previous two. Premier League matches only.
Research preview · Opponent-adjusted xG
Forest’s underlying strength
Attack, defence and overall strength. Higher is stronger; 100 is the Premier League average at each season endpoint.
Latest rating through 2026-11-02 · 9 games this season. Neutral opponent and venue. Earlier seasons still contribute with less weight; this is not a final-position prediction.
Current Premier League ratings use the forecast's matched 90-match snapshot; statistics updated 2026-11-03T00:00:14.178Z. Historical and other-league endpoints are dated saved studies.
Same fixtures · last season
A season apart.
9 matches · Same venue · Promoted opponents mapped
Premier League · 2026/27
Forest across the numbers.
| Rank | PointsLeague table 19th 2nd | xPtsxPts / match4th2nd | xGxGF / match5th1st | xGAxGA / match2nd6th | xGDxGD / match4th2nd | Set-play xGSet NPxG / match9th10th | Box-entry diffBox diff / match=5th1st | PPDAPasses / action11th5th |
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