Last 4 matches · hardest first
ClubDifficulty /100ExpectedActual+/−
Premier League 2026/27 · Experimental model
Fixtures & difficulty.
Forest’s run-in, the tougher stretches and the league’s changing schedule.
Results 4 Nov 2026, 21:41 · Stats 3 Nov 2026, 00:00 UKWho has the tougher run?
Compare the last and next matches. Difficulty is independent of each club’s own strength.
Easier → harder across these two lists. Bar length = difficulty /100.
Next 4 matches · hardest first
ClubDifficulty /100Expected pts
Last 4: points vs expectation
Rebuilt pre-match model → shot-based xPts → actual points. Positive gaps mean more points than expected.
| Club | P | Pre-match model | Shot xPts | Actual | Vs model ↓ | Vs xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tottenham4P · model 4.8 · xPts 7.9 | 4 | 4.8 | 7.9 | 10 | +5.2 | +2.1 |
 Arsenal4P · model 7.4 · xPts 7.8 | 4 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 12 | +4.6 | +4.2 |
 Brighton4P · model 5.2 · xPts 6.9 | 4 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 9 | +3.8 | +2.1 |
 Bournemouth4P · model 5.9 · xPts 8.7 | 4 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 9 | +3.1 | +0.3 |
 Aston Villa4P · model 5.1 · xPts 5.5 | 4 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 8 | +2.9 | +2.5 |
 Chelsea4P · model 6.5 · xPts 6.8 | 4 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 9 | +2.5 | +2.2 |
 Fulham4P · model 5.6 · xPts 7.5 | 4 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 7 | +1.4 | -0.5 |
 Ipswich4P · model 4.2 · xPts 3.1 | 4 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 5 | +0.8 | +1.9 |
 Coventry4P · model 5.4 · xPts 4.1 | 4 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 6 | +0.6 | +1.9 |
 Liverpool4P · model 5.9 · xPts 5.3 | 4 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 6 | +0.1 | +0.7 |
 Everton4P · model 4.2 · xPts 4.6 | 4 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4 | -0.2 | -0.6 |
 Brentford4P · model 5.8 · xPts 3.6 | 4 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 5 | -0.8 | +1.4 |
 Man City4P · model 6.9 · xPts 8.4 | 4 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 6 | -0.9 | -2.4 |
 Leeds4P · model 4.5 · xPts 3.8 | 4 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 2 | -2.5 | -1.8 |
 Crystal Palace4P · model 5.6 · xPts 3.6 | 4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 3 | -2.6 | -0.6 |
 Hull City4P · model 5.7 · xPts 3.8 | 4 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 3 | -2.7 | -0.8 |
 Newcastle4P · model 6.1 · xPts 4.1 | 4 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 3 | -3.1 | -1.1 |
 Forest4P · model 4.6 · xPts 7.2 | 4 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 1 | -3.6 | -6.2 |
 Sunderland4P · model 4.9 · xPts 4.8 | 4 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 1 | -3.9 | -3.8 |
 Man United4P · model 5.9 · xPts 2.7 | 4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 2 | -3.9 | -0.7 |
Pre-match figures are walk-forward reconstructions using earlier dates only, not originally issued forecasts. Missing shot data stays blank; shorter samples show their actual games played.
The table after the next 4 gameweeks
Through GW 13 · 3 Dec. Current points plus expected points for every fixture due by then.
| # | Club | Now pts | P after | +Model | Pts after | Places |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal4 fixtures · now 24 pts | 24 | 13 | 7.3 | 31.3 | 0 |
| 2 | Man City4 fixtures · now 21 pts | 21 | 13 | 6.6 | 27.6 | 0 |
| 3 | Brighton4 fixtures · now 19 pts | 19 | 13 | 6.2 | 25.2 | 0 |
| 4 | Chelsea4 fixtures · now 16 pts | 16 | 13 | 6.4 | 22.4 | 0 |
| 5 | Liverpool4 fixtures · now 15 pts | 15 | 13 | 6.9 | 21.9 | 0 |
| 6 | Brentford4 fixtures · now 14 pts | 14 | 13 | 5.0 | 19.0 | 0 |
| 7 | Bournemouth4 fixtures · now 12 pts | 12 | 13 | 6.5 | 18.5 | +1 |
| 8 | Everton4 fixtures · now 13 pts | 13 | 13 | 5.1 | 18.1 | -1 |
| 9 | Aston Villa4 fixtures · now 12 pts | 12 | 13 | 5.8 | 17.8 | +1 |
| 10 | Tottenham4 fixtures · now 12 pts | 12 | 13 | 5.7 | 17.7 | -1 |
| 11 | Leeds4 fixtures · now 11 pts | 11 | 13 | 5.2 | 16.2 | +1 |
| 12 | Newcastle4 fixtures · now 11 pts | 11 | 13 | 4.8 | 15.8 | +1 |
| 13 | Ipswich4 fixtures · now 11 pts | 11 | 13 | 4.3 | 15.3 | +1 |
| 14 | Hull City4 fixtures · now 11 pts | 11 | 13 | 4.1 | 15.1 | -3 |
| 15 | Coventry4 fixtures · now 9 pts | 9 | 13 | 5.0 | 14.0 | +1 |
| 16 | Fulham4 fixtures · now 9 pts | 9 | 13 | 4.9 | 13.9 | -1 |
| 17 | Man United4 fixtures · now 7 pts | 7 | 13 | 5.6 | 12.6 | 0 |
| 18 | Crystal Palace4 fixtures · now 7 pts | 7 | 13 | 5.4 | 12.4 | 0 |
| 19 | Forest4 fixtures · now 6 pts | 6 | 13 | 4.9 | 10.9 | 0 |
| 20 | Sunderland4 fixtures · now 5 pts | 5 | 13 | 4.6 | 9.6 | 0 |
Ranked by projected points, then expected goal difference and goals scored. This is a ranking of average totals, not each club’s most likely position. Dates/fixtures TBC can hold the projection.
Fixture difficulty, across the league
The same league-average side faces every opponent. Home advantage included; higher difficulty = harder.
FavourableEasierBalancedHardVery hardH/A = venue · W/D/L = played result · tap a cell
GW 9–12
Club / GW1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435363738
Nottingham Forest v Manchester City (H)7 Nov 2026 · To come
- Difficulty
- 60/100 · Balanced
- Model points
- 1.14
- Win / draw / loss
- 30% / 25% / 45%
The season, in blocks
Spot the easier and harder stretches in scheduled match order.
Games 1–109 played · 1 to come
55/100 difficulty
12.3 model pts · 6 actual pts from 9
LEE (H) · LIV (A) · TOT (H) · AVL (A) · COV (H) · CRY (A) · ARS (H) · IPS (A) · BRE (A) · MCI (H)
Games 11–200 played · 10 to come
53/100 difficulty
13.6 model pts · Not started
BOU (A) · CHE (H) · HUL (A) · BHA (H) · SUN (A) · EVE (H) · MUN (A) · NEW (A) · FUL (H) · HUL (H)
Games 21–290 played · 9 to come
56/100 difficulty
11.4 model pts · Not started
MCI (A) · BOU (H) · CHE (A) · BRE (H) · FUL (A) · MUN (H) · EVE (A) · NEW (H) · TOT (A)
Games 30–380 played · 9 to come
53/100 difficulty
12.3 model pts · Not started
AVL (H) · LEE (A) · LIV (H) · SUN (H) · BHA (A) · CRY (H) · ARS (A) · IPS (H) · COV (A)
Difficulty uses a league-average reference team (0 easier → 100 harder). Model points use Nottingham Forest’s own strength. Past fixtures use the rebuilt pre-match model; future fixtures use today’s model.