Pick a team, a period or a particular opponent. Compare the actual return with the range of outcomes those chances could have produced.
Current Premier League results follow the live table; model totals need matching recorded statistics. Older xGoT and other leagues have gaps.
Start with
Team game numbers follow the order a club actually played, before opponent or venue filters. They are not official gameweeks. A number range applies within each selected season.
LOOKING BACK · SHOT-BASED REPLAY
Nottingham Forest: chances v results
All available seasons (2022/23–2026/27) · All opponents · Home & away
161 selected games · 161/161 with validated xG probabilities · 6 Aug 2022 – 31 Oct 2026
Actual points189-8.2 compared with the model
Model average197.2Based on the chances both teams had
Middle 80% of replays180–215Median: 197 points
Modelled returnsActual return
28.9%
chance of 189 points or fewerExactly 189: 2.5%. Percentages are conditional on these selected games and chances.
189 points: 2.5% of replays · actual returnThis is the 20,000-replay sample. Headline probabilities are calculated exactly.
This asks what might have happened from the chances already taken. It is not a prediction made before the games.
HOW THE POINTS BUILT UP
Chance quality, shot quality and results
Follow the cumulative points after each game. Compare xPts with xGoTPts to see how both teams’ shot execution changed the modelled return.
Nottingham Forest · 2026/27 · All league games · Home & away, all opponents. Filters above apply only in selected-games view.
xPts uses the quality of the chances; experimental xGoTPts uses post-shot quality. Both account for the opposition’s shots too. The gap is not a pure finishing or goalkeeper rating. These are cumulative model averages, not a forecast or an uncertainty band. Actual points exclude deductions.
The games in your selection
Untick a game to build a custom comparison. Scores and probabilities are from Nottingham Forest’s perspective.
Use
Date / season
Game
Opponent
Result
Win
Draw
Loss
xPts
6 Aug 20222022/23
1GW unknown
Newcastle UnitedAway
0–2Loss
4.5%
18.9%
76.6%
0.32
14 Aug 20222022/23
2GW unknown
West Ham UnitedHome
1–0Win
18.5%
21.7%
59.8%
0.77
20 Aug 20222022/23
3GW unknown
EvertonAway
1–1Draw
24.2%
26.4%
49.4%
0.99
28 Aug 20222022/23
4GW unknown
Tottenham HotspurHome
0–2Loss
9.3%
16.3%
74.4%
0.44
31 Aug 20222022/23
5GW unknown
Manchester CityAway
0–6Loss
1.7%
5.9%
92.3%
0.11
3 Sep 20222022/23
6GW unknown
AFC BournemouthHome
2–3Loss
69.2%
21.1%
9.7%
2.29
16 Sep 20222022/23
7GW unknown
FulhamHome
2–3Loss
49.7%
27.7%
22.5%
1.77
3 Oct 20222022/23
8GW unknown
Leicester CityAway
0–4Loss
31.9%
28.2%
39.9%
1.24
10 Oct 20222022/23
9GW unknown
Aston VillaHome
1–1Draw
14.1%
44.8%
41.1%
0.87
15 Oct 20222022/23
10GW unknown
Wolverhampton WanderersAway
0–1Loss
37.8%
35.0%
27.2%
1.48
18 Oct 20222022/23
11GW unknown
Brighton & Hove AlbionAway
0–0Draw
2.0%
17.6%
80.4%
0.24
22 Oct 20222022/23
12GW unknown
LiverpoolHome
1–0Win
46.8%
23.7%
29.5%
1.64
30 Oct 20222022/23
13GW unknown
ArsenalAway
0–5Loss
4.0%
12.9%
83.0%
0.25
5 Nov 20222022/23
14GW unknown
BrentfordHome
2–2Draw
35.3%
28.9%
35.9%
1.35
12 Nov 20222022/23
15GW unknown
Crystal PalaceHome
1–0Win
29.7%
33.1%
37.1%
1.22
27 Dec 20222022/23
16GW unknown
Manchester UnitedAway
0–3Loss
6.9%
14.6%
78.5%
0.35
1 Jan 20232022/23
17GW unknown
ChelseaHome
1–1Draw
49.1%
27.7%
23.2%
1.75
4 Jan 20232022/23
18GW unknown
SouthamptonAway
1–0Win
65.9%
24.8%
9.4%
2.22
14 Jan 20232022/23
19GW unknown
Leicester CityHome
2–0Win
73.1%
19.4%
7.5%
2.39
21 Jan 20232022/23
20GW unknown
AFC BournemouthAway
1–1Draw
51.0%
25.0%
24.0%
1.78
How to read this model
xGoT uses the same independent-shot calculation with post-shot xGOT values. xGoTPts reflect both teams’ shot execution; their gap from xPts is not a pure measure of one team’s finishing or goalkeeper performance. Missing xGoT is never substituted with xG or zero.
Each match’s win, draw and loss probabilities come from independently replaying its individual shot xG values. We repeat your selected matches 20,000 times. Bars show those simulated totals; the average, middle 80% and headline probabilities are calculated exactly. For points, a win earns three, a draw one and a loss zero. Points deductions are not included.
Penalties are included; own-goal pseudo-shots are excluded. Shots and games are treated as independent. Changing a simulated goal does not change later tactics or chances. Selecting a memorable winning run afterwards does not measure the chance of any such run occurring somewhere in a season.
Dates and team game numbers are available throughout the results archive. Official gameweeks require verified round metadata and are incomplete in older seasons. Known playoffs are excluded; unresolved competition phases hold the model. All-season comparisons cover this league’s saved seasons only, not a club’s entire history.
Long charts zoom to at least 99.8% of simulated returns and keep the actual result visible. Every total remains in the inspector; probabilities are not rescaled. Saved results through 3 November 2026.