01
Arsenal
24 pts · 9 played
Median2nd
OUTLOOK / PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27
Premier League outlook
Updated · 4 Nov 2026, 21:41 UK90 completed matches · FPL results
League finish ranges
1995/96–2025/26 · 31 seasonsMedian and outcome %: same points, same games played. 11th–17th = bottom half, not relegated.
Click any finish or %.
02
Manchester City
21 pts · 9 played
Median2nd
03
Brighton & Hove Albion
19 pts · 9 played
Median4th
04
Chelsea
16 pts · 9 played
Median7th
05
Liverpool
15 pts · 9 played
Median8th
06
Brentford
14 pts · 9 played
Median7th
07
Everton
13 pts · 9 played
Median8th
08
Bournemouth
12 pts · 9 played
Median11th
09
Tottenham Hotspur
12 pts · 9 played
Median11th
10
Aston Villa
12 pts · 9 played
Median11th
11
Hull City
11 pts · 9 played
Median12th
12
Leeds United
11 pts · 9 played
Median12th
13
Newcastle United
11 pts · 9 played
Median12th
14
Ipswich Town
11 pts · 9 played
Median12th
15
Fulham
9 pts · 9 played
Median13.5
16
Coventry City
9 pts · 9 played
Median13.5
17
Manchester United
7 pts · 9 played
Median15.5
18
Crystal Palace
7 pts · 9 played
Median15.5
19
Nottingham Forest
6 pts · 9 played
Median17th
20
Sunderland
5 pts · 9 played
Median18th
Click a % for the teams and seasons. Range: best from these points or fewer; worst from these points or more.
Outcome tracker
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%High 47.8%Low 13%12345678910
Next game · Manchester City (H) · Nottingham Forest · from 47.8% now
Games played · matching points totals · 31 archived seasons. Hover or tap a game for match details.
Relegation
Relegation · 18th–20th · 47.8%
11 of 23 past teams with exactly 6 points after exactly 9 games: Relegation.
47.8% = 11 matching teams ÷ 23 teams in this comparison group × 100.
| Team | Season | Points after 9 | Final points | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 2015/16 | 6 | 37 | 18th |
| Bolton | 2011/12 | 6 | 36 | 18th |
| West Ham | 2010/11 | 6 | 33 | 20th |
| Newcastle | 2008/09 | 6 | 34 | 18th |
| Sheffield United | 2006/07 | 6 | 38 | 18th |
| Birmingham | 2005/06 | 6 | 34 | 18th |
| Norwich | 2004/05 | 6 | 33 | 19th |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2003/04 | 6 | 33 | 20th |
| Derby | 2001/02 | 6 | 30 | 19th |
| Bradford | 2000/01 | 6 | 26 | 20th |
| Barnsley | 1997/98 | 6 | 35 | 19th |
How it works & sources
Outcome percentages use teams with exactly the same points after the same games. Top half means 1st–10th; 11th–17th excludes relegation; relegation means 18th–20th. Top seven is a league position, not guaranteed European qualification. These are historical rates, not a forecasting model.
Past-season chart lines use the full archive, excluding that club’s selected season from its own comparison group. Next-game branches recalculate after one more game with three, one or zero extra points. They do not predict the match result.
We compare each club after its own number of completed games, across 31 finished 20-team seasons (1995/96–2025/26). Postponements and games in hand are not treated as games played. Each club-season counts once.
The best end takes the highest finish among teams with the current points or fewer; its percentage counts only teams finishing in that best position, divided by everyone in that lower-points group. The worst end takes the lowest finish among teams with the current points or more, and uses that higher-points group as its denominator. The groups overlap at exactly the same tally, but they are not one probability distribution. No median, most-likely marker, bell curve or forecast odds are inferred from these endpoints.
For a maximum-points start, the lower-points group can include the whole archive, while the higher-points group includes only maximum-points starts. Thus two identical record positions can legitimately have very different percentages: each answers a different historical question.
Historical points include deductions effective on each match date; final ranks include final deductions. Penalties between games appear in the next match snapshot. Today’s table uses completed FPL results and separately recorded deductions, reviewed through 2026-10-24. We do not adjust for squad strength, fixtures or managers. Clubs recur, so observations are not independent. History: Football-Data.co.uk ↗ · Current results: Fantasy Premier League ↗